This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Brazil. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to win a great deal of cash from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will try to get my 3rd seat this week to maximum it if I could. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at the $30k prize, then I will likely have a few shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Raoni Barcelos — $9,600
Barcelos is your money game play on for me . On the betting line he is now -1100 and he is -206 to acquire ITD. He’s also +110 to win in round 1. He’s my favorite play on the plank, the sole issue is being able to afford him. For money games, I can for sure match him in. For GPPs it’s going to be harder to get 6 wins paying for his huge salary, but I enjoy him there as well. I simply won’t make it a priority for him into those championship lineups, but money I need that -1100 in my group to get a secure win.
GPP play of this week — Ryan Spann — $8,800
This is a battle I like to target. My favorite play is Spann however Little Nog is in play also. The best thing for FDGTD is -280 and I think Spann can win via KO or sub, and it could be 1st round as well. I believe he can compete with the $9k fighters and he could be a man that kicks them off the 1st place lineup. Small Nog is the better fighter however and Spann doesn’t have a fantastic chin , so I could see Nog winning via KO. I don’t think that’s probably, therefore I will not be thick on him, but he can make my player pool. Spann is a guy I think is in play in all formats and that I will attempt to be obese on him. It is more of a fade on Little Nog at this point, but I don’t see this fight going all 3-rounds and I enjoy Spann to get the win.
Underdog drama of the week — Alex Volkanovski — $7,800
On DraftKings, I anticipate Volkanovski to be quite chalky and rightfully so. He’s my preferred play in this battle and his previous scores pretty much make him a guy you can not fade if you’re MMEing. I really don’t see him using the ceiling that he did in his previous fights vs Aldo, but those numbers are difficult to dismiss. His 6 UFC wins have each totaled over 100 DK points. From latest fight to his debut, these are his DK scores: 107, 100, 129, 116, 107, and 115. That is pretty wonderful. I believe he’s a good prospect of upsetting the legend and possibly getting an end for another high score. I really don’t think Aldo is a fantastic matchup for him to demonstrate that 100+ point ceiling but at $7.8k we do not require that many points. I believe IF he wins, he easily pays off that salary.
Fade of the week — Luana Carolina — $8,900
There’s absolutely no way I’m paying $8.9k for Carolina. She is the fade of this week and whether or not it disturbs me afterward it burns me. I really don’t see that being the case though even when she wins. I expect this struggle to keep standing and that I really don’t watch her striking at a pace to pay off her price tag without obtaining a finish. I really don’t think she gets that complete so even if she wins I think she scores nearer to 75 DK points and in her salary which won’t wind up to the optimal lineup. Even if I make 150 lineups this week I will not receive any exposure to Carolina.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I am 76-45 for +260.95 (+$26,095) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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